A year ago, we were concerned about the impact of the war in the Ukraine. Both the geo-political and economic implications were potentially devastating. While that war continues unabated, the terrorist activity and ensuing conflict in Israel and Gaza have knocked most of the Ukraine news to the sidelines. Again, the global implications are very concerning. Not to mention the thousands of affected civilians on both sides of the border.
Perhaps it is not surprising, then, that volatility in the stock markets continues to remain quite high. It is not uncommon to see a swing of 1% to 1.5% in day based on changing outlooks for inflation, oil prices and the economy, A wayward comment by any of the regional Federal Reserve executives can be expensive, at least in the short term. While talk of a recession is still relatively frequent, the timing continues to be pushed further out and there is increased talk of a soft landing.
We saw this volatility in our funds as well. After experiencing a 1.9% increase in value in July, followed by a .2% increase in August, we lost 4.2% in September. That puts us down a little over 2% for the quarter. Not good news, but the bright spot is that we are still up 7.9% year to date. We are also pleased that our funds outperformed the markets as the S&P500 and the TSX were down 4.1% and 3% respectively, for the quarter.
Unfortunately, we have little control over world conflict. What we have done, and will continue to do, is use investment managers who invest using time tested value approaches through an ESG lens. We believe that this is the best way to steward your funds and ensure continued returns. In the meantime, we continue to hope for greater peace for everyone’s sake.